Gloomiest Forecast Yet.

The gloomiest forecast yet for the chip industry comes from Mike Cowan with a 1.6% growth forecast for the year.
It’s a long way from Malcolm Penn’s 7.9% and Bill Jewell’s 7.8% growth forecasts, and significantly lags Databeans’ 7.1%, IC Insights’ 6% and Carnegie Group’s 5%.

It’s also some way off IDC’s 4.9%, the 4.8% forecast of IHS, the 4.5% forecast of Gartner and the 3.9% of WSTS.

It’s also out of step with the positive remarks by ST’s CEO that Q2 order backlog was up 8% on Q1 and Q3 ‘s backlog is currently 12% up on Q2.

Cowan is expecting 2013 to pan out: Q1 $70.4 bn; Q2 $72 bn; Q3 $77.6 bn; and Q4 $76 bn.

In 2014 he expects 5.4% growth overall with a $73 bn Q1; a $76 bn Q2; an $82 bn Q3 and an $80 bn Q4 for a total 2014 market of $312 bn.



  1. Thanks David, much appreciated.

  2. P.S Andrew, I am told that the RSS feed is there (it’s automatically built into WordPress apparently) – use the URL below with your “Feed Reader” of choice:

  3. Future Horizons always tracks itself and tells you how far out it may or may not hsve been, andrew, I think everyone expects the predictions to be wrong but everyone still takes an interest in them. i’ll check about the RSS thing.

  4. David,

    Do you (or anyone you know) track the performance of the various forecasters against how things actually pan out? It would be interesting to see the historical results as opposed to the latest iterations that, by definition, get closer to reality as time goes on.

    BTW, it’s a shame the new blog platform does not seem to support a direct RSS feed to Mannerisms. Any prospect of this?


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