Is DRAM slump over?

Is the DRAM slump over? Speculative buying in advance of the Chinese New Year has pushed the DRAM spot price sharply higher. 

DRAMeXchange reports that the spot price of  DDR3 1333 MHz 2Gb surged from $1.83  on Jan 27th to $2.24 on Jan 28th – a 22% increase in two days.

According the DRAMeXchange, the DRAM contract price is also reaching its bottom, and a 20 to 25% increase is expected in 2Q11.

With the upcoming Chinese New Year, the Asian spot market including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea will be closed in early February.

The need to replenish inventory from the Chinese market showed a slight upward trend in spot price on January 25th and the 26th before the surge on the 27/28th.

The indicator of rebound has triggered speculative buying while and provided incentive for vendors to hold on to a portion of their inventories.

‘The momentum is very strong,’ says DRAMeXchange, ‘we are expecting to see some price fluctuation after the Chinese New Year, but overall price will be going in a steady upward trend.’ 
The momentum is coming from explosive growth in smartphones and tablet PCs, and an increasing demand for servers used in cloud computing.

DRAM vendors have planned to move their capacity to mobile DRAM, server DRAM and to the foundry business from commodity DRAM because of its volatility in price and consequent high risk, says DRAMeXchange.

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