'We estimate that Japanese NAND output will be reduced by ~30% in two months time,' says the bank, adding, 'the NAND market was supply constrained even before the earthquake due to rising smartphone and tablet demand.'
The note continues: 'The NAND market will likely remain supply-constrained for several months.'
Although Toshiba has not made any statement about the state of its NAND output, it is likely that the combination of the original earthquake, the continuing tremors and the persistent power outages will have affected its ability to supply customers.
Can Micron and Samsung make up the difference?
Assuming they decided to divert capacity from DRAM to NAND immediately after the earthquake, then it will still be mid-July before the extra wafers reach the market.
Supplier inventories may keep the show on the road until early April.
Then merry hell may break loose.