There was actually uncertainty, perhaps for the first time, about the length of the current downturn in the semiconductor industry last week.
There was the sound of surprisingly bullish comments from the power IC market, and the DRAM industry of all places.
But is it just wishful thinking or something more?
But is it just wishful thinking or something more?
The comments of a Powerchip executive in Taiwan that there could be an shortage of DRAM as soon as Q3 this year could be viewed as wishful thinking.
DRAM still looks like a desparate place to be.
Suppliers are suffering from falling demand and prices heading south, not least in Taiwan where the Government has been forced to step in with a possible rescue plan.
DRAM still looks like a desparate place to be.
Suppliers are suffering from falling demand and prices heading south, not least in Taiwan where the Government has been forced to step in with a possible rescue plan.
On the other hand the suggestion from marketwatcher iSuppli that the power IC market could start to turn around in Q2 has the real danger of actually being credible. Are those 'green shoots' I see?
Unlike a commodity chip like DRAM, power devices are both higher value and necessary to most forms of electronic system. When the market does come back it will be MCUs, analogue chips and power ICs, and not memory, which will lead the charge.
But will it be in Q2? Who actually knows, but right now the signs are not promising.
Production levels are falling in manufacturing powerhouses like China and Germany.
Mobile phone volumes are on the slide; the latest evidence of this being Nokia's move to dramatically cut its subcontract work.
And with slowing demand from mobile makers, LCD prices are falling steadily.
So the start date for recovery is still as uncertain today as it was last week. And yes the share prices of the poor old DRAM suppliers went up a bit.
The only positive I can take out of last week's comments on the DRAM and power IC markets is that executives and analysts are now actually looking for signs of change. If not recovery then an end to the headlong downward slide.
I am certain no one was doing that with any credibility even a month ago.
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