There are three reasons why the upturn in the distribution market, when it comes later this year, will be faster than in the recovery to previous downturns.
First, excess inventory has been washed out of the supply chain more efficiently than in the last downturn in 2001/2.
Less inventory not only means that the upturn will start earlier, it can also result in a faster recovery as a supply and demand balance tips over in to shortages and rising prices.
We know that Texas Instruments has taken $130m of inventory out of its global supply chain in recent months. I am sure it is not the only supplier cutting back.
Second, there are fewer distributors operating in the market compared to the situation eight years ago.
This means better business conditions for those distributors than remain.
For example, five major supermarkets can flourish in the high street where 10 would just dilute and confuse business opportunities.
It also means that the distributors which remain are in far more stable financial positions. They can adapt and more easily take advantage of the upturn when it comes.
Third, the Internet has fundamentally changed the component distribution market in the last five years.
A number of distributors have moved beyond the 50% tipping point for online sales.
The internet allows companies to be more efficient in the way they target customers and sell products.
It also allows them to create new ways of selling which can provide that extra push to the upturn when it finally comes.
All this tells me that the market recovery, when it comes, will be sharper and more profitable than eight years ago.
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