Semiconductor supply chain needs a record Q3

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Good news coming out of Germany seems to be getting better.

Last week's news that Europe's largest industrial economy had come out of recession in Q2 has been followed by encouraging news of new orders in the industrial sector, which is so important to the electronics supply chain.

And the good vibes are spreading across the eurozone. The purchasing managers' indices for the 16-country eurozone region were the strongest since May 2008.

The talk in Europe now seems to be of a "very strong" Q3.

Certainly, semiconductor book-to-bill ratios were up in July which seems to be a source of some of the returning confidence in the market.

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves it is worth reminding ourselves of the depth of the hole which the electronics supply chain in the UK and the rest of Europe found itself in at the start of the year.

Only last week, chip distributor and manufacturer association (DMASS) reported the steepest sales decline in the organisation's history in Q2, with sales across Europe down 32.6% on Q2 last year.

"Taking into account the booking situation of 2008 and early 2009, it was clear that Q2 would end in a disaster across all regions and product groups," says Georg Steinberger, chairman of DMASS.

So everyone seems to be "less pessimistic" about business in the rest of the year. That in itself is a welcome improvement on just a few short months back.

But it is still far from real business confidence. And until that returns I will take reports of "a record Q3" in the eurozone with a healthy helping of salt.

It is worth remembering that any upturn in Germany is good news for UK-based suppliers and manufacturers.

It raises the prospect of improving export business. This is vital for any recovery in the manufacturing sector.

The worry is a return to some for of growth in mainland Europe could highlight the continuing weakness in the UK, which is still waiting for definite positive numbers.

These could, some say must, come in Q3, but if they don't materialise then the UK could find itself being left behind in Europe's bid to recover the lost ground of the last 18 months.

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This page contains a single entry by Richard Wilson published on August 24, 2009 10:38 AM.

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