Forecasting the future, to a decimal point
They might be armed with a mountain of data and have the best analytical models but no one can anticipate the future, especially to a decimal point.
“Frankly anyone’s number for next year, including ours, is a pure guess. No one in the world has a model. If they say they do they’re lying”, said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons.
Pen adds “To put a decimal point to a forecast figure in these circumstances is just ridiculous.”
Read the full article. It also includes a forecast from US semiconductor industry analyst, iSuppli. They are forecasting, incidentally, a 9.4% decline for 2009.