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Forecasting the future, to a decimal point

calendar-generic.jpgAn excellent article by David Manners on the fallability of analysts and their future forecasts – Gartner forecast ridiculous, says Future Horizons

They might be armed with a mountain of data and have the best analytical models but no one can anticipate the future, especially to a decimal point.

“Frankly anyone’s number for next year, including ours, is a pure guess. No one in the world has a model. If they say they do they’re lying”, said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons.

“The numbers are pure guesswork, there’s no science to them, and no methodology behind them. Everyday a new crook comes out of the woodwork who’s lost tens of billions of dollars. It’s better to say: ‘We don’t know’ than to produce a figure and then try and substantiate it on logical grounds.”

Pen adds “To put a decimal point to a forecast figure in these circumstances is just ridiculous.”

Read the full article. It also includes a forecast from US semiconductor industry analyst, iSuppli. They are forecasting, incidentally, a 9.4% decline for 2009.

Tags: billions of dollars, guesswork, models, tens, woodwork

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