Ruminations on the electronics industry from David Manners, Senior Components Editor on Electronics Weekly.
It’s a Germany v Argentina Final, says Cortana.
Germany will beat Brazil tomorrow and Argentina will beat Holland.
That’s the prediction of Microsoft’s footie Oracle Cortana.
Cortana has accurately predicted the results of eight successive World Cup matches.
“The process of predicting outcomes of sporting events depends on the actions and performances of a handful of individuals which solely determine who wins, loses, or ties,” says Microsoft, “for the tournament, our models evaluate the strength of each team through a variety of factors such as previous win/loss/tie record in qualification matches and other international competitions and margin of victory in these contests, adjusted for location since home field advantage is a known bias. Further adjustments are made related to other factors which give one team advantages over another, such as home field (for Brazil) or proximity (South American teams), playing surface (hybrid grass), game-time weather conditions, and other such factors. In addition, data obtained from prediction markets allows us to tune the win/lose/tie probabilities due to the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ phenomenon captured by the people wagering on the outcomes.”