LED Prices To Collapse?
Will LED prices fall by 90% by 2015? Will LEDs account for 50% of all general purpose lighting by 2016?
Most people don’t think so, but the CEO of a venture capital company, Alan Salzman of Vantage Point, expects LED prices to fall from the 1 cent-per-lumen of today to 0.25 cents-per-lumen by the end of next year to 0.10 cents-per-lumen by 2015.
Well CEOs of VC companies may not know much, but Salzman’s company has at least invested in four LED companies – Huga Optotech of Taiwan, Glo of Sweden, and the US companies Switch Bulb Co and Bridgelux.
Salzman gives no reason for the expected price drop except the effects of competition and the driving force of regulation but there are technical reasons why prices may drop.
One reason is the move to larger silicon carbide wafers which will bring prices down. For instance Cree is adding 150mm wafers to replace 100mm.
However, the most significant cost reduction of all could come from using GaN-on-Silicon wafers – if this technology proves to be possible.