Has Apple Peaked?

Apple has seen $175bn trimmed off its market cap since Steve Jobs died as the share price fell from $500 to $700. People ask: Has Apple peaked? Seven things suggest Yes:

Maps

Socket change

Letting Samsung take the lead in larger screen size

Launching iPad 3 which was heavier, thicker, ran hotter and had shorter battery life than iPad 2.

Hiring a Dixon’s guy to run the stores.

Losing multiple lawsuits vs Samsung.

Disrupting the iPhone5 supply chain.

Tags: Apple, battery life, share price, supply chain

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8 Comments

  1. David Manners
    January 22, 2013 13:54

    Yes indeed Jack. Jobs picked Cook but he also picked Sculley. It would have seemed logical to have picked a product guy to succeed a product guy.

  2. Jack
    January 22, 2013 13:16

    Since Jobs left Apple, Apple has lost the visionary guy. Tim is more of operational guy, unlike Steve. Until someone from Apple comes out with good vision, it will be more of a decline for Apple. Whereas Samsung, knowing he can’t beat Apple in design, they go with broad range attack with all market segments out there.

  3. David Manners
    January 21, 2013 23:15

    I’m sure you’re correct about everything there, Scunnerous, but Samsung is out-shipping Apple 2-1 in smartphones.

  4. Scunnerous
    January 21, 2013 22:39

    I think there’s been a lot of exaggeration on the Apple stories. The peak was reached mainly because of speculators trading futures and then moving on when they figured they’d driven it high enough to make a “decent” profit on bailing out.
    As for the “disruption” in the supply chain, Apple is known to over-order on parts to assure supply of leading edge parts which are difficult to manufacture and for which there is limited foundry capacity; in particular, in the Fall 2012, this involved IPS screens and 4G chipsets. There was even a mention that they were suspected of jacking up quantities on options for 4G chipsets from Qualcomm in order to get manufacturing preference over Snapdragons on TSMC 28nm. At least a large part of the cutback was re-adjustments according to actual requirements… which are apparently still substantial at 11 million iPhone 5 per month.
    I don’t think the situation at Apple is as grim as many “analysts” would like to make out – after all they live and die on speculative stories to work their pump n dump schemes – err, change is good, whether it’s up or down.

  5. David Manners
    January 21, 2013 21:36

    I agree with Mrs C, Mr C, which is why I still use my iPhone3. Until 4G comes along it is perfectly Ok for my needs.

  6. Mr Cynical
    January 21, 2013 20:29

    My 4p worth is that Apple has had somewhat of a monopoly on the high end smart phones (which up to now they have earned), then along came Samsung and really nothing has changed with the iPhone, people are still using 3S, 4 & 4S models quite happily. Mrs C has a 4 which she does not like and continually tells me that she preferred the shape of the 3S.
    So what has Apple not done? I say reduced the price of the iPhones that are not current, they have paid for all the tooling and development now they are being lazy and creaming the market. The iPhone 5, in my opinion did not move the goalposts much.
    Now it’s going to get interesting as Nokia has a realistic low end and lower cost smartphone and Amazon are reputedly coming out with a £60-£120 smart phone.
    Now that’s going to start making Apple honest?

  7. David Manners
    January 21, 2013 19:32

    Well I think the maps and socket things show a bit of a disdain for customers, Nick, but I think the main thing is that Samsung’s phones are more covetable.

  8. Nick Daines
    January 21, 2013 16:38

    Isn’t it also about market maturity?
    Perhaps Apple’s share price has been built on people buying their first iPhone, and they won’t necessarily buy a new one every year – so maybe someone’s got some work to do to convince the public why they need a 4G phone?

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