Ruminations on the electronics industry from David Manners, Senior Components Editor on Electronics Weekly.
Dodgy Old Q4
The noises coming out of reporting CEOs recently have not been optimistic. Some have taken this to mean that the 30% + surge in the semi market this year is to be followed by hard times. But it would be premature to draw such a conclusion.
TI said demand softened in Q3 and will continue to soften in Q4, principally from TV and computer customers, with TI expecting Q4 revenue to fall to between to $3.36 billion to $3.64 billion from $3.74 billion in Q3. TI cites ‘seasonal patterns, continued soft demand in computing and consumer markets, and slowing growth in the industrial market’.
Hynix had a Q3 9% decline in DRAM ASP and a 23% decline in NAND ASP and expects a further ASP decline in Q4 of 20-25%.
UMC says its wafer output could fall by around 5% in Q4 compared to Q3 with fab utilisation falling to 90% in Q4 from 99% in Q3.
TSMC says Q4 revenues are expected to be between US$3.49 billion and US$3.56 billion after achieving US$3.6 billion in Q3.
Cypress expects a drop in revenues in Q4 attributed to a softening PC market.
Lattice expects a drop in revenue in Q4 of between 2 and 7%.
An exception to the trend is ST which expects Q4 growth of between 2% and 7% after Q3 growth of 5%.
The thing is Q4 is nearly always worse than Q3.
These CEOs may simply be managing expectations.
Tags: ceos, consumer markets, Cypress, hynix, q4 revenues