Ruminations on the electronics industry from David Manners, Senior Components Editor on Electronics Weekly.
Gloomiest Forecast Yet.
The gloomiest forecast yet for the chip industry comes from Mike Cowan with a 1.6% growth forecast for the year.
It’s a long way from Malcolm Penn’s 7.9% and Bill Jewell’s 7.8% growth forecasts, and significantly lags Databeans’ 7.1%, IC Insights’ 6% and Carnegie Group’s 5%.
It’s also some way off IDC’s 4.9%, the 4.8% forecast of IHS, the 4.5% forecast of Gartner and the 3.9% of WSTS.
It’s also out of step with the positive remarks by ST’s CEO that Q2 order backlog was up 8% on Q1 and Q3 ‘s backlog is currently 12% up on Q2.
Cowan is expecting 2013 to pan out: Q1 $70.4 bn; Q2 $72 bn; Q3 $77.6 bn; and Q4 $76 bn.
In 2014 he expects 5.4% growth overall with a $73 bn Q1; a $76 bn Q2; an $82 bn Q3 and an $80 bn Q4 for a total 2014 market of $312 bn.Tags: backlog, bill jewell, carnegie group, growth forecasts, mike cowan