mannerisms

Ruminations on the electronics industry from David Manners, Senior Components Editor on Electronics Weekly.

Gloomiest Forecast Yet.

The gloomiest forecast yet for the chip industry comes from Mike Cowan with a 1.6% growth forecast for the year.
It’s a long way from Malcolm Penn’s 7.9% and Bill Jewell’s 7.8% growth forecasts, and significantly lags Databeans’ 7.1%, IC Insights’ 6% and Carnegie Group’s 5%.

It’s also some way off IDC’s 4.9%, the 4.8% forecast of IHS, the 4.5% forecast of Gartner and the 3.9% of WSTS.

It’s also out of step with the positive remarks by ST’s CEO that Q2 order backlog was up 8% on Q1 and Q3 ‘s backlog is currently 12% up on Q2.

Cowan is expecting 2013 to pan out: Q1 $70.4 bn; Q2 $72 bn; Q3 $77.6 bn; and Q4 $76 bn.

In 2014 he expects 5.4% growth overall with a $73 bn Q1; a $76 bn Q2; an $82 bn Q3 and an $80 bn Q4 for a total 2014 market of $312 bn.

Tags: backlog, bill jewell, carnegie group, growth forecasts, mike cowan

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4 Comments

  1. Andrew Town
    May 23, 2013 15:11

    Thanks David, much appreciated.

  2. david manners
    May 22, 2013 15:34

    P.S Andrew, I am told that the RSS feed is there (it’s automatically built into WordPress apparently) – use the URL below with your “Feed Reader” of choice:

    http://www.electronicsweekly.com/mannerisms/feed/

  3. david manners
    May 22, 2013 14:05

    Future Horizons always tracks itself and tells you how far out it may or may not hsve been, andrew, I think everyone expects the predictions to be wrong but everyone still takes an interest in them. i’ll check about the RSS thing.

  4. Andrew Town
    May 22, 2013 12:41

    David,

    Do you (or anyone you know) track the performance of the various forecasters against how things actually pan out? It would be interesting to see the historical results as opposed to the latest iterations that, by definition, get closer to reality as time goes on.

    BTW, it’s a shame the new blog platform does not seem to support a direct RSS feed to Mannerisms. Any prospect of this?

    Andrew

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