2012 forecast heads South
Projections for 2012 semi sales are heading South with the Cowan LRA forecasting model predicting a $294.6bn market representing a 1.7% market contraction.
Next year, the model predicts a $316bn market developing Q1 $73bn, Q2 $75bn, Q3 $87bn, Q4 $81bn.
Year-to-date cumulative sales for 2012 (total yearly sales through August) came in at $189.5bn compared to last year’s year-to-date cumulative sales number of $198.5bn.
This equates to a 2012 year-to-date (through August) sales growth result of minus 4.6% implying that global semiconductor sales for the second half of 2012 must exhibit significant strength to reach last year’s sales number of $299.52bn in order that the full year’s 2012 sales growth will break even with last year’s sales.
The latest Cowan LRA model’s sales forecast expectation for the second half of 2012 is predicted to come in at $151.7bn which would correspond to a first half to second half sequential sales growth (1H => 2H) forecast estimate of 6.2%.
Therefore, second half global semiconductor revenue would need to grow sequentially by at least 10% in order to assure a positive sales growth for 2012 relative to 2011.
For a view of the complete 2013 semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast outlook, the Cowan LRA forecasting model was extended in order to “capture” the forecast sales numbers for the final two quarters of 2013.
Thus the second half of 2013 sales forecast estimate came in at $167.5bn which represents a 10.5% increase over the (forecasted) 2H2012 sales of $151.7bn.
Therefore, the full year 2013 sales forecast outlook becomes $316.2bn which yields an expected 2013 y-o-y sales growth forecast estimate of 7.4% which, however, is down from last month’s sales growth forecast expectation of 7.7%.