Better year in 2012; Great year in 2013, says SEMI.
SEMI expects a better year in 2012 and a great year in 2013.
Spending on fab equipment is expected to grow 2% this year to $39.5bn and 17% next year to $46.3bn, says SEMI.
Regions planning to spend the most on fab equipment in 2012 are: Korea (over $11bn), Taiwan ($8.5bn), the Americas ($8.3bn), Japan ($3.8bn), and Europe/Middle East ($3.5bn).
In 2013, the largest spending is expected again in Korea (over $12.5bn), the Americas (over $11.5bn), Taiwan (over $8bn), Japan (over $4bn), and China ($3.6bn).
The largest increase seen in 2012 is for memory and foundry. Some of the System LSI is moving from logic/IDM to foundry which causes spending for Logic/IDM to taper off a bit. Although Intel plans historic high capex in 2012, front end equipment spending for MPU is not expected to increase much in 2012.
SEMI says there are 45 planned fab projects (including new and on-going) in 2012 and 24 planned in 2013.
Fab construction spending will drop 6% in 2012 to $6.2bn.
Fab construction spending in 2013 is also expected to decline about 1% to $6.1bn.
Samsung announced an investment of $8bn for a memory fab in Xian, China, which is expected to start ground-breaking in Q4.
UMC plans to spend almost $8bn on its P5/P6 fabs that began construction in May 2012.
Plus there have been new fab announcements from TSMC, Intel, and SMIC. SEMI also expects Samsung to begin with Line 17 soon.
In 2012, 11 new fabs will begin construction. In 2013 7 new fabs will begin construction, though this may change.
Examining fab construction spending by region, top spenders for 2012 will be the Americas ($2.8bn), Taiwan ($1.3bn), and Korea ($1.1bn). In 2013, top spending regions will be Taiwan ($2.2bn), China ($1.4bn), Korea ($1.4bn) and Japan ($850m.
The largest three construction projects in 2012 are by Intel, TSMC, and Samsung and in 2013, by Samsung, TSMC and UMC.
The combined planned capacity of all new fabs beginning construction in 2012 will be 900,000 wafers per month (in 200mm equivalents).
Memory accounts for 60 % of this capacity, foundry 20%, and System LSI 20%.
In 2013, the new fabs will add planned capacity for 550,000 wafers per month. Half of the growth will be seen in foundry, a bit less than half in memory.