Chips looking good
The worldwide semiconductor market is back to a healthy level of growth, said Bill Jewell at Semiconductor Intelligence.
“WSTS data shows the 2Q 2013 global semiconductor market was up 6.0% from 1Q 2013 – the strongest quarter-to-quarter growth since 6.6% growth in 2Q 2011″ said Jewell. “Recent forecasts for 2013 market growth range from a conservative 2.1% from WSTS to an optimistic “up to 10%” from Objective Analysis. We at Semiconductor Intelligence are holding to our May number of 6.0% growth”.
Forecasts for 2014 have a wide range – from IDC’s 2.9% (the only forecaster to show slower growth in 2014 than in 2013) to “over 20%” from Objective Analysis.
Semiconductor Intelligence has increased its forecast for 2014 to 15% from its May forecast of 12%.
The various % growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 are shown in the table from Semiconductor Intelligence, above.
The average for the 2014 forecasts shown is 9.4%, which is a strong growth rate for the semiconductor market considering the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the prior cycle peak in 2004 to the current cycle peak in 2010 was 5.8%.
How certain is the outlook for 2013? To reach 6% growth for the year, 3Q 2013 and 4Q 2013 quarter-to-quarter growth would need to average 6.4%. This growth rate is reasonable based on the 3Q 2013 versus 2Q 2013 revenue growth guidance from major semiconductor companies.
For Q3 growth over Q2, Intel’s mid-point guidance is 5%, Qualcomm is flat, TI 6%, ST is flat, Broadcom 4%, Renesas 5%, Infineon 3% and AMD 22%.
The midpoint of 3Q 2013 revenue guidance for most of the companies above is in the range of 3% to 6%.
AMD projects 22% growth due to new products and design wins.
Qualcomm expects flat revenue quarter-to-quarter based on the timing of key new product releases.
ST’s outlook for a flat 3Q is blamed on its struggling wireless business. Excluding wireless, ST expects 3.5% growth.
The upper end of guidance is in the upper single digit or double digit range for most of the companies.
Samsung did not provide specific revenue guidance but expects 3Q demand growth for both DRAM and flash in its memory business and strong demand growth for image sensors in its LSI business.
The weighted average midpoint 3Q 2013 revenue growth for the above companies is 4.2% versus 3.7% growth in 2Q 2013.
This compares to WSTS’ 6.0% 2Q 2013 market growth. So smaller semiconductor companies generally are experiencing stronger growth than the major companies quoted in the table.