Cowan forecast dips
The Cowan LRA semiconductor market forecast model is expecting $78bn sales in Q3 and $76bn sales in Q4 making an H2 total of £154bn.
For the full year, it is forecasting a year-end 2012 total of $297bn, which is slightly down on last year,
The forecasts come after Q1 sales came in a $70bn and Q2’s at $73bn.
Cowan’s expectation is that July’s number will be $23bn – down from June’s $26bn.
For next year, Cowan is forecasting a $74bn Q1 and a $76bn Q2 for an H1 result of $150bn.
Other forecasters are more optimistic. Semico expects 6-8% growth for the year,IDC is forecasting 4.6%; IHS expects 4.3%; while Gartner and Future Horizons plump for 4% and IC Insights goes for 3%.
The SIA is forecasting a flat year which, according to Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, is “totally and absolutely wrong, it’s not going to be less than 4%.”
Penn expects Q3 to be up 10% on Q2.