10% growth for 2014, says Semiconductor Intelligence

2014 semiconductor growth could double 2013 rate, says Bill Jewell’s Semiconductor Intelligence, which is projecting 10% growth for this year.

Other forecasts made in the last three months are:

Objective Analysis 20
VLSI Research 9
Semico 9
Future Horizons 8
Deutsche Bank 8
IC Insights 7
Digitimes. 5.2
WSTS 4.1
Mike Cowan 3.6

Overall, Q4 2013 declined 0.8% from Q3 for full year growth of 4.8%.

4Q 2013 revenue changes versus 3Q 2013 ranged from +42% at Micron to -18% at Hynix.

Companies’ revenue guidance for 1Q 2014 indicates an overall decline in revenue from 4Q 2013, ranging from -16% at, to -11% at Renesas, to -9.5% at ST, to -7.5% at Intel, to -4.3% at Brodcom, to -3.4% at Qualcomm, to -2.6% at TI to +5% at Infineon to +9.1% at Toshiba.

The weighted average guidance for 1Q 2014 is a decline of about 5%.

“Our 10% growth forecast is largely driven by an expectation of accelerating World GDP growth,” says Jewell, “the IMF January outlook calls for World GDP growth of 3.7% in 2014, up from 3.0% in 2013. Acceleration is driven by developed economies, with the U.S. expected to accelerate to 2.8% in 2014 versus 1.9% in 2013. The Euro Area should recover from a 0.4% decline in 2013 to 1.0% growth in 2014. The strongest growth continues to be in emerging and developing economies, growing 5.1% in 2014, up from 4.7% in 2013. Although China is forecast to decelerate slightly from 7.7% to 7.5%, most other developing economies are projected to show accelerating GDP growth in 2014.”

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