236m digital and analogue TVs will be sold this year only 1.2% more than last year, says IC Insights.
However, the greater usage of ICs in digital TVs than analogue TVs means that the IC market for DTVs grew 12% to an estimated $13.4bn in 2012, up from $12bn billion in 2011. ?
IC Insights projects that total global IC revenue for televisions will grow 9% to $14.6bn in 2013.
Through 2016, TV shipments are forecast to grow to 269m units, which represents a CAGR of 2.9% from 2011-2016.
The digital television upgrade cycle continues in emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and that is helping offset slower growth in mature markets such as Japan, Western Europe, and North America where the upgrade to flat-panel digital televisions sets has largely taken place.
Economic hardship is seen as one reason for the slow rate of growth for televisions in 2012, but perhaps more telling is that a younger, tech-savvy generation of consumers is choosing to watch TV when it wants via the Internet using the mobile device of their choice. ?
For the first time in more than 20 years, the number of homes in the USA with television sets declined in 2011, according to data collected by the Nielson Company, which calculates television ratings for networks and advertisers. ?
More programming is being downloaded from the Internet and is watched on computers or other devices, and is one reason why “cord cutting,” where consumers drop cable to watch videos or TV shows on Hulu, Roku, or through their Xbox 360s, is accelerating, and cutting into the growth rate of TV unit shipments.
TV manufacturers are looking ahead to find the next big technology driver for TVs. ?In the near-term, smart TVs represent a solid growth driver. ?Just as smartphones brought the Internet and thousands of applications to cellphone users, smart TV is bringing Internet features to television by offering TV broadcasts, videos, movies, photos, and other content via the web and Cloud-based video on demand (VOD) services. ?
Smart TVs have evolved from simply having the ability to connect to the Internet and provide web browsing, to having the ability to download and run apps, to including sophisticated technologies and multiscreen interaction and using TVs in combination with handheld devices for a more interactive experience. ?
IC Insights estimates that smart TVs represented 28% of television shipments in 2012 and are forecast to account for 62% of TV shipments in 2016.
Adoption of technologies such as wireless video connections, networking interfaces, multi-format decoders and LED backlighting will help boost the average IC content in TV sets even as the growth rate for TV sets themselves slows through the forecast period.
The IC market for DTVs grew 12% to an estimated $13.4bn in 2012, up from $12bn billion in 2011. ?IC Insights projects that total global IC revenue for televisions will grow 9% to $14.6bn in 2013.
Further out, ultra-premium organic LED (OLED) TV sets could be the next big growth driver for the television industry. ?Most consumers agree that OLED sets produce the most dazzling picture of all HDTV technologies on screens that can be made bigger, thinner, that draw less power and contain no bad metals, and can potentially be made flexible and/or transparent. ?A few select manufacturers have demonstrated 60-inch OLED models, but these are priced around $10,000—far beyond what most consumers are currently willing to pay.