Intel was the only other company that held a double-digit share of 300mm capacity at the end of 2012.
Assuming Micron is successful in acquiring Elpida in 1H13, the combined 300mm wafer capacity of the two companies will make the merged company the second-largest holder of 300mm capacity in the world behind Samsung.
300mm capacity leaders
The top twelve owners of capacity this year are:
TI &nb sp; 60
Source IC Insights.
Of the top 10 companies on the list, half are primarily memory suppliers, two are pure-play foundries, and one company, Intel, focuses on MPUs.
Samsung is expected to maintain its lead in installed capacity through 2017, with aggressive capital spending plans seen over the past few years continuing over the next five years.
However, in terms of growth rate, IC Insights expects the largest increase in 300mm capacity to come from the pure-play foundries—TSMC, GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC.
In total, IC Insights expects these four companies to more than double their collective 300mm wafer starts per month by 2017.
IC Insights believes that the top twelve companies will represent essentially all the advanced 300mm IC production and capacity in the future.
IC Insights believes that the top seven or eight companies—Samsung, “Micron-Elpida,” TSMC, SK Hynix, Intel, Toshiba/SanDisk, and GlobalFoundries—can be considered an “elite” group that is just about guaranteed to be a driving force in 300mm capacity additions.
The remaining companies are likely to participate in future 300mm capacity expansion, but all have varying degrees of risk associated with fully realizing their long-term 300mm IC production capacity goals.
Meanwhile, there is still much uncertainty as to when the industry will make the next wafer-size transition—from 300mm to 450mm—and how much it will cost to do so, but momentum continues to build and the transition can now be considered certain to happen, says IC Insights.
IC manufacturers have yet to fully optimize the high-volume manufacturing cost structure for the 300mm wafer size. However, the potential per-die cost savings that the larger wafer can provide is enough of a motivating factor to make the transition happen, says IC Insights.