Semi growth 4% in 2011, says Future Horizons
Future Horizons downgraded its forecast for 2011 semiconductor growth to 4% this morning.
A flattish Q1 and Q2 is expected to be followed by 4% growth in Q3 and 1.5% growth in Q4.
“Q1 was better than expected – then came the earthquake,” said Future Horizons’ CEO Malcolm Penn, “the memory pricing uncertainty wild card has kicked in.”
However he pointed out that non-memory ASPs are holding up and inventory is growing only slightly.
Last December, Future Horizons was expecting 6% growth this year with a 7.2% growth in Q3.
Penn bemoaned the regular revisions of WSTS figures which make their interpretation uncertain.
He added: “There is no book-to-bill data any more, no end market demand or supply chain visibility, and no order statistics.”
He added that Toshiba is so suspicious of the integrity of NAND orders coming through – many from would-be tablet market leaders – that the company is only booking ten per cent of the orders which come in.