Gloomy five per cent growth forecast for chip market from Texas Instruments

Gloomy five per cent growth forecast for chip market from Texas Instruments
David Manners
A particularly gloomy forecast for the world semiconductor industry has come from Texas Instruments (TI). It believes the market “is likely to grow five per cent or less in 1998 in view of inventory reductions of electronic end-equipment, sharply lower DRAM prices, weakness in Asia and depreciation of the yen”.
However, not everyone agrees with TI. “We think they’re a little bit low,” Richard Gordon of Dataquest Europe told EW. “In Europe we expect nine to ten per cent growth and across the world we think it will be nearer to ten than five.”
The situation has changed dramatically from this time last year when Dataquest’s Gene Norrett was predicting 22 to 25 per cent growth for this year and describing that as a ‘slow recovery’. It must be very doubtful that the general consensus view over the last few years that the industry would hit the $300bn mark in 2000 will be met. Even $200bn is looking optimistic. Hopes for 1998 rest on value-added DRAMs for the new 100MHz PC systems bus.


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