Intel-funded study predicts $7trn driverless car industry by 2050

An Intel-sponsored study has made some multi-trillion dollar forecasts for the driverless car industry.

IMG_0641An Intel-sponsored study has made some multi-trillion dollar forecasts for the driverless car industry.

The industry will be worth $7 trillion in annual revenues by 2050, says the report.

43% of that – $3 trillion -.is expected to come from business use of mobility-as-service.

55% of that – $3.7 trillion – would come from consumer use of mobility-as-service.

$200 billion of that is expected to be generated from rising consumer use of new innovative applications and services that will emerge as pilotless vehicle services expand and evolve.

The study is by the New Cities Foundation. The Foundation also predicts that:

585,000 lives can be saved due to self-driving vehicles between 2035 and 2045.

Reductions in public safety costs related to traffic accidents could amount to more than $234 billion over the 2035 to 2045 time period.

“Autonomous vehicles will reconfigure time and then space, to some extent, and will ultimately lead to changes in land use and services,” says New Cities Foundation Fellow Greg Lindsay, “eventually, you’ll see changes in land use, where you start to see, perhaps, the rise of massive new exurban suburbs where people are willing to commute two or three hours a day each way because of how they are able to use their time,”

Car manufacturers will shift focus from sales to people to selling to fleet-owners with some municipal authorities owning the cars used in their cities, says the report.

Apartment building owners, hotels and condominiums may provide driverless vehicles to tenants and guests and companies might do it for employees.

“Carmakers may ultimately vie to operate particular networks of vehicles for particular cities — not unlike cities in China today where local taxi franchises are assigned to particular carmakers (also partially owned by the cities,” says the report, “what is clear is that carmakers will themselves become fleet operators. With electrification, new market participants may challenge existing incumbent car manufacturers for these franchises.”

“The enhanced safety offered by pilotless vehicles will enable the vehicle to finally become a media and entertainment hub,” adds the report, “the number of screens in vehicles will expand and the use of heads-up displays for rich media and other content presentation and viewing will grown steadily.”

Explaining Intel’s funding of the study, CEO Brian Kzranich, said: “We started the conversation around the passenger economy early, to wake people up to the opportunity streams that will emerge when cars become the most powerful mobile data generating devices we use and people swap driving for riding.”

Mobileye, the driverless car technology company bought by Intel for $15 billion in March, has reported Q1 revenues of $33.5 million.


Comments

6 comments

  1. All very logical, Mike Van In, and the predicted functions are pretty much spot on, pity The Cloud came in to make the computer in the attic unnecessary.

  2. OMG Dr Bob, I expect you’re right. They’ll be like red rags to a bull.

  3. I too can make predictions at very little cost.

    I predict that when autonomous vehicles do ‘finally’ appear there will be hacking contests to see who can get the most vehicles going in circles on roundabouts (Swindon watch out), most vehicles going backwards and forwards between motorway junctions, spelling out rude words in Morse code on a motorway, etc

  4. And in other news:

    By 2001, all homes will be masterfully controlled by a big computer in the attic. The Computer, about the size of a refrigerator and containing thousands of transistors, will regulate heating and cooling, prepare meals from pre-recorded recipes, select radio and TV shows according to family preferences and will record messages from visitors when the homeowners are out. All information will be stored on high-speed tape drives that can also access a recorded encyclopedia for helping with homework or advice on how to tune a carburettor or repair a record player.

  5. Spot on Big Softie, this is, indeed, mega-bollox.

  6. My goodness. Intel has seriously funded some….erm, somewhat less than profitable ventures in the past, but this one really takes the chocolate hobnob. I particularly like the “Autonomous vehicles will reconfigure time and then space…” quote, Too much watching Dr Who, methinks. What a load of horseshit. The industry doesn’t even get its forecast for the next few years right. Great for the guys who produced this presumably expensive report…enjoy the dosh, boys, you’ll never be held to account. Right, I’m off on my hoverboard, happy in the knowledge my smarthome is replenishing the groceries whilst I’m out.

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