An Intel-sponsored study has made some multi-trillion dollar forecasts for the driverless car industry.
The industry will be worth $7 trillion in annual revenues by 2050, says the report.
43% of that – $3 trillion -.is expected to come from business use of mobility-as-service.
55% of that – $3.7 trillion – would come from consumer use of mobility-as-service.
$200 billion of that is expected to be generated from rising consumer use of new innovative applications and services that will emerge as pilotless vehicle services expand and evolve.
The study is by the New Cities Foundation. The Foundation also predicts that:
585,000 lives can be saved due to self-driving vehicles between 2035 and 2045.
Reductions in public safety costs related to traffic accidents could amount to more than $234 billion over the 2035 to 2045 time period.
“Autonomous vehicles will reconfigure time and then space, to some extent, and will ultimately lead to changes in land use and services,” says New Cities Foundation Fellow Greg Lindsay, “eventually, you’ll see changes in land use, where you start to see, perhaps, the rise of massive new exurban suburbs where people are willing to commute two or three hours a day each way because of how they are able to use their time,”
Car manufacturers will shift focus from sales to people to selling to fleet-owners with some municipal authorities owning the cars used in their cities, says the report.
Apartment building owners, hotels and condominiums may provide driverless vehicles to tenants and guests and companies might do it for employees.
“Carmakers may ultimately vie to operate particular networks of vehicles for particular cities — not unlike cities in China today where local taxi franchises are assigned to particular carmakers (also partially owned by the cities,” says the report, “what is clear is that carmakers will themselves become fleet operators. With electrification, new market participants may challenge existing incumbent car manufacturers for these franchises.”
“The enhanced safety offered by pilotless vehicles will enable the vehicle to finally become a media and entertainment hub,” adds the report, “the number of screens in vehicles will expand and the use of heads-up displays for rich media and other content presentation and viewing will grown steadily.”
Explaining Intel’s funding of the study, CEO Brian Kzranich, said: “We started the conversation around the passenger economy early, to wake people up to the opportunity streams that will emerge when cars become the most powerful mobile data generating devices we use and people swap driving for riding.”
Mobileye, the driverless car technology company bought by Intel for $15 billion in March, has reported Q1 revenues of $33.5 million.